Yes, we are headed for a second dip in this recession. The prevailing wisdom is 3rd/4th quarter 2010 no matter assurances to the contrary from Tim Geithner et.al.

I’m not an economist but you’d have to be blind not to see what’s happening.

Keep an eye on the no-value euro, which George Soros and others who know say is a very basic economic problem that will strongly and negatively affect global markets.

Also, the housing market has its problems. We hit a new low this month in new home sales, charted against variables and tracked since 1963.

Then there’s the commercial RE market and predictions that the stock market will sell off 40-50% of current highs. I am also hearing that 50% of homeowners will be under water on their mortgages by this summer.

And then there’s that old favorite, unemployment, which is at +/- 22% (shadowstats.com)no matter what bogus number they try to sell us in Washington. Yeah, that Washington, where they must finally realize we can’t tax nor spend our way out of this.

I have a friend who is whispering Bilderberg Group in my ear. I’m far from a conspiracy theorist, but I’m just sayin’ . . . Things that make you go hmmmm.

Here’s something John Maynard Keyes said more than 80 years ago:

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“By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

– John Maynard Keynes
(1883-1946) British economist

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Chills my bones.

Hang on tight. This isn’t over by a long shot. Another friend whispers in my ear,”Preservation of capital.”

I will be at home waiting this out. Preserving what I have left.

I have been cleaned out once. Once is enough.

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I’m gratified to see that Americans have not taken their usual head-in-sand position where the economy is concerned. Everyone is disgusted, party notwithstanding. Congress is absurd. Things still suck. The government numbers on unemployment are simply not true. The real number is 22%, my friends. Don’t fall for fuzzy math. We are still up to our eyeballs in economic muck and have a long way to go before most of us can even hope to find a job again.

Today alone, I spoke with three incredibly talented ad biz lifers, none of whom can find enough work to stay alive. Two recently lost positions with yet another small agency that closed and have hung a shingle to start over. Another spends his days chain smoking and talking to angry creditors, and his nights hyperventilating and crying when he should be asleep. He spends very little time with his loved ones or working on his craft, which is his passion and the thing he knows how to do.

It has become that kind of world.

None of us want to be in this position. Entrepreneurial small business owners get into the game with burning passions and lofty goals. Because we believe we can bring something new and fresh to the marketplace that will contribute in all ways.

I defy you to find even one small business owner who said,”Gee, I think I’ll open a business so I can run myself into the ground, lose everything I have, ruin my health, alienate my family, piss everyone off and spend my days on the phone fighting with banks and bill collectors!”

The burden cannot fall on us alone. Risk works both ways. We win some, we lose some. Creditors win some, creditors lose some. That’s the game.

In the end, we all have to work together. And my money is still and forever on America’s small businesses. There will be some incredible opportunities coming down the pike after this mess settles down. Isn’t our time best spent preparing for that?

Besides, everyone knows that picking on the small guy always backfires.  I mean, who hasn’t seen “Rocky?”

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Beautiful night in Downtown Miami. At 65 delightful degrees, it was a gorgeous South Florida winter evening.

We saw Cavalia under the Big Top, which looks like a spaceship and sits waterfront in Bicentennial Park.

I am always captivated by this city.  Tonight was no exception.

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When my company and big six-figure salary went away last summer, I thought I would completely fall apart.

Instead, with it went my stress, anxiety, sleepless nights, anguish, disappointment and a small army of dishonest, unscrupulous blood suckers who existed only to steal from me. No, I’m not bitter. Far from it. I am profoundly grateful.

In the past 8 months I have discovered happiness and peace of mind like never before in my life. I now surround myself with accomplished, integrous, positive, forward-thinking people. I am learning new business and personal skills, one of which is to simply relax and breathe. I still haven’t decided what I want to do next, but I am very clear on what I don’t want to do and who I don’t want anywhere near me or my life. That’s worth way more than money. So much is.

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Here is one of 10 big ideas from TED2010, which concludes Saturday, February 13:

$60K a year can make you happy

Psychologist and Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman says millions of dollars won’t buy you happiness, but a job that pays $60,000 a year might help.

Happiness levels increase up to the $60K mark, but “above that it’s a flat line,” he said.

“Money does not buy you experiential happiness but lack of money certainly buys you misery,” he said. But the real trick, Kahneman said, is to spend time with people you like.

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Happy Valentines Day to all.

Posted by Patty Soffer under Business & Family & Spirituality & The Collective & Uncategorized | No Comments »

Enjoy.

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